1、 Industry demand
With the strengthening of environmental protection supervision and the introduction of provincial supervision programs in all provinces, the disposal of hazardous waste just needs to be improved again, especially the increase in the amount of disposal required to enter the standardized channels. However, the market situation is that the actual production is far greater than the statistics (53.47 million tons in 2016 was disclosed, and 80 million tons are expected to be actually produced), the comprehensive utilization and disposal rate is low (83%), and the effective utilization rate is low (25%), resulting in the overall supply of hazardous waste disposal falling short of demand. Hazardous waste policies have been constantly introduced, especially the implementation of provincial rules:
(1) In 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the "13th Five Year Plan" work plan for supervision and assessment of national standardized management of hazardous waste, and all provinces recently launched the provincial plan for supervision and assessment of standardized management of hazardous waste;
(2) The National Catalogue of Hazardous Wastes shall be implemented as of August 1, 2016; The newly revised Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Environmental Pollution by Solid Wastes cancels the approval procedures for hazardous waste transfer within the province;
(3) In 2016, the judicial authorities issued special judicial interpretations on environmental pollution crimes;
(4) The Environmental Protection Tax Law will be implemented from 2018, and the hazardous waste tax will be 1000 yuan/ton;
(5) The Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the Technical Policy for Prevention and Control of Solid Waste Pollution by Cement Kiln Collaborative Disposal to support the collaborative disposal of cement kilns.
In recent years, all provinces and cities have issued the 13th Five Year Plan for the Construction of Hazardous Waste Facilities. Shandong Province issued the 13th Five Year Plan for the construction of hazardous waste disposal facilities in September 2017; In October 2017, Sichuan Province issued a five-year plan for the construction of hazardous waste disposal facilities; In November 2017, Guangdong Province issued a three-year action plan for solid waste pollution control (2018-2020). Shandong: During the "13th Five Year Plan" period, the province plans to complete 318 hazardous waste and medical waste utilization and disposal projects, 35 collection, storage and transportation projects, 353 projects in total, and an estimated total investment of 53 billion yuan. The new industrial hazardous waste utilization capacity was 15.38 million tons, and the hazardous waste incineration, physicochemical, landfill and other disposal capacity was 7.13 million tons (including 68000 tons of medical waste disposal capacity). Sichuan: By 2020, seven hazardous waste projects will be fully completed, with a new hazardous waste disposal capacity of 405000 tons/year, and the provincial hazardous waste centralized disposal capacity of 498600 tons/year. By 2022, six hazardous waste projects will be fully completed, with a new hazardous waste disposal capacity of 233000 tons/year, and the provincial hazardous waste centralized disposal capacity of 731600 tons/year. By 2020, the province's medical waste disposal capacity will reach 142900 tons/year, including 89200 tons/year of new capacity. Guangdong: By 2020, the safe disposal rate of industrial hazardous waste and medical waste in Guangdong Province will reach more than 99%; By 2020, the annual landfill disposal capacity of the province will increase by 100000 tons; The annual incineration disposal capacity of the province increased by 100000 tons; By 2020, the province will strive to form a harmless disposal capacity of medical waste of more than 100000 tons/year.
1. Demand side
Hazardous wastes are extremely harmful to the environment and are just needed for disposal. According to the definition of the newly revised National Catalogue of Hazardous Wastes in 2016, hazardous wastes are:
(1) Having one or more dangerous characteristics such as corrosiveness, toxicity, flammability, reactivity or infectivity;
(2) It is not excluded that those with hazardous characteristics, which may cause harmful effects on the environment or human health, need to be managed as hazardous waste.
Hazardous wastes can be divided into 46 categories and 479 kinds. The 2016 edition of the National Catalogue of Hazardous Wastes optimized and reduced the major categories, but refined the sub categories, which was more in line with the actual situation of industrial production and increased the enforceability. The original list of 49 categories of 400 kinds of hazardous wastes was adjusted to 46 categories of 479 kinds, and the new 79 kinds are mainly the refinement of HW01 medical waste, HW11 refined (steam) distillation residue and HW50 spent catalyst waste. Hazardous wastes mainly include industrial wastes, municipal wastes and medical wastes. Industrial waste accounts for more than 70%, and medical waste accounts for about 14%; Among industrial hazardous wastes, waste acid and alkali account for 30%, asbestos waste 14%, and non-ferrous metal smelting waste 10%; Among the source industries, chemical raw materials and product manufacturing accounted for 19%, non-ferrous metal smelting accounted for 15%, scrap metal mining and processing accounted for 14%, and paper making accounted for 13%. The statistical data in the Environmental Status Bulletin and the National Statistical Yearbook are the output reported by the enterprises themselves, and the enterprises are trying to avoid high amounts Hazardous waste treatment There is a strong tendency to conceal expenses, and various evidences show that the data is seriously distorted.
(1) In 2016, the official statistics of hazardous waste production increased by 13.71 million tons (+34%) to 53.47 million tons. In 2016, the sharp increase of 14 million tons in hazardous waste production was not due to the increase in actual hazardous waste production in industry, but due to the implementation of the central environmental protection supervision in 2016, the overall supervision was greatly strengthened, and a large number of enterprises that secretly discharged hazardous waste in the past disposed of hazardous waste in accordance with the regulations, which led to the rise in the amount of hazardous waste in the statistical caliber, as well as the amount of recycling and harmless treatment.
(2) This kind of statistical growth also occurred in 2011. In 2011, the output of hazardous wastes of more than 1kg was included in the statistics, so the output of that year jumped from about 15 million tons before 2010 to more than 34 million tons.
(3) In 2010, two ministries and one bureau jointly released the Announcement of the National Pollution Source Survey, which showed that in 2007, the national production of hazardous waste was 45.74 million tons, far more than the 10.79 million tons declared by enterprises in the statistical yearbook.
(4) From the perspective of the proportion of hazardous waste in solid waste, the output of solid waste is expected to remain stable at about 3.3 billion tons in 2016, and the proportion of hazardous waste in solid waste is only 1.3%, far below the level of 5% - 10% in developed countries. The second national survey of pollution sources is about to be carried out, and we expect that this survey will more truly reflect the amount of hazardous waste generated.
2. Supply side
Although the comprehensive disposal rate is 83%, the actual disposal rate of hazardous waste enterprises is only 25%. According to the National Environmental Statistical Annual Report, in 2016, a total of 44.3 million tons of industrial hazardous waste were disposed, including 28.24 million tons of resource-based disposal and 16.06 million tons of harmless disposal, with a comprehensive disposal rate of 82.8%. However, due to the failure of some industrial enterprises to strictly declare, the disposal rate data is on the high side; According to the Inspection Report on the Enforcement of the Law on the Prevention and Control of Environmental Pollution by Solid Wastes issued by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in November, in 2016, the design disposal capacity of units holding hazardous waste business licenses in all provinces (districts and municipalities) nationwide was 64.71 million tons (CAGR 25% in ten years), but the actual business scale was only 16.29 million tons, and the actual proportion of hazardous waste enterprises was only 25%. The main reasons are
(1) The supply and demand types do not match. There are many kinds of hazardous wastes, so each kind of hazardous waste needs different disposal technology and qualification. More than 90% of hazardous waste disposal enterprises in China can only dispose less than 5 kinds of hazardous wastes, and the mismatch between supply and demand is serious.
(2) Due to factors such as environmental assessment and long construction period, there are a large number of hazardous waste enterprises with licenses but no actual disposal capacity. There is a big gap between the output of hazardous wastes and the treatment capacity, and the treatment costs vary from place to place. Due to the continuous support of favorable national policies, hazardous waste treatment will usher in a golden age, and the price of hazardous waste treatment will also remain high. From the perspective of hazardous waste disposal pricing in various regions, the price of landfill disposal is generally 2000-4000 yuan/ton, and the price of incineration disposal is generally 2000-5000 yuan/ton. The price difference between different regions is large, mainly due to the gap between hazardous waste output and treatment volume, Areas with large gaps, such as Shanxi and Sichuan, have relatively high processing costs.
3. Market space
The proportion of hazardous wastes in developed countries is 5% - 10%. Assuming that the proportion of hazardous wastes in solid wastes is 3%, it is estimated that the actual output of hazardous wastes is nearly 100 million tons, with a difference of more than 40 million tons from the official statistics. In the next three years, with the continuous strengthening of supervision, the difference between the actual hazardous waste output and the official statistics will continue to narrow. We believe that the comprehensive disposal rate will steadily increase, and the market space will reach 100 billion yuan in 2020 at 3500 yuan/ton. The hazardous waste industry has strong profitability, with a gross profit margin of more than 35% and a net profit margin of 20%; The proportion of government customers is low and the cash flow is good. The high barriers in the industry deter many enterprises salivating in the hazardous waste industry.
(1) Qualification barrier, hazardous waste industry is subject to government supervision, and the collection, transfer and disposal all require permits.
(2) As for the capital barrier, the investment of 10000 tons of harmless disposal is 60 million to 80 million yuan, and the recovery cycle is long, usually 3-5 years.
(3) Management barriers.
(4) Technical barriers: there are many kinds of hazardous wastes with high treatment difficulty. Its technology is an integral combination of various processes, which requires years of management experience and technical accumulation
